Message from Phil Soper, CEO, Royal LePage
July 8, 2019 Economics
One of the most respected economic research institutes in Canada, C.D. Howe, has recommended that the Bank of Canada keep its target interest rate flat at 1.75% for the next twelve months. I have recently spoken and written along the same thematic lines. Policy makers must grapple with the impact of relatively robust (and improving) economic performance inside Canada, and a slowing and much more somber outlook in the U.S. and abroad. The institute specifically called out the importance and improving outlook of the Canadian housing industry, as well as strengthening business investment, both of which are driving growth in employment and wages, and inflation close to or even above the central bank's target. Turning to the U.S., it is increasingly likely that the central bank there, the Federal Reserve, will cut rates in the face of a slowing economy. C.D. Howe stated that this should result in "a stronger domestic US economy, with positive implications for Canadian business confidence and exports." Bottom line: if you're listening to American business news, don't misinterpret rate cut expectations south of the border as rate cut likelihood in Canada. We have related but independent economies and monetary policy.
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